108
Perhitungan :
Inisialisasi Awal :
S1
'
=
S1
'
=
S1
''
=
X
1
S
t
'
=
aX
t
+
(1 -
a
)S
(
'
t
-¹)
S
t
'
=
aS
t
'
+
(1 -
a
)S
(
'
t
-¹)
S
t
''
=
aS
t
'
+
(1 -
a
)S
(
''
t
-¹)
Æ
Pemulusan pertama
Æ
Pemulusan kedua
Æ
Pemulusan ketiga
a
t
= 3S
t
'
-
3S
t
'
+ S
t
''
a
b
t
=
2(1 -
a
)
2
a
2
[(6 - 5a
)S
t
'
-
(10 - 8a
)S
t
'
+
(4 - 3a
)S
t
''
]
c
t
=
(1 -
a
)
2
(S
t
'
-
2S
t
'
+
S
t
''
)
F
=
a
+
b
.m +
1
c
.m
2
t
+m
t
t
2
t
Perhitungan Untuk Data ke-2 :
a
=
0,019
S
t
'
=
aX
t
+
(1 -
a
)S
(
'
t
-¹)
S2
'
=
aX
2
+
(1 -
a
)S1
'
S = 0,019(1339,00) + (1 - 0,019)1292,00
2
' = 0,019(1339,00) + (1 - 0,019)1292,00
S = 1292,89
2
' = 1292,89
S 2
' 2
'2
=
aS '2 +(1 -
a
)S '
'1
S 2
' 2
=
0,019(1292,89) + (1 - 0,019)1292,00
S 2
' 2
=
1292,02
S
2
''
=
a
S
2
'
+
(1 -
a
)
S
1
''
S 2
' 2
' 2
=
0,019(1292,02) + (1 - 0,019)1292,00
S 2
' 2
' 2
=
1292,00
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