104
S"
t
=
a.S
'
t
+(1 -
a .S"
).S"
(t -1)
S"2
=
a.S '2 +(1 -
a .S"1
).S"1
= 0.1 * 22.30 + (1 - 0.1) * 22 = 22.03
a
t
=
2.S '
t
-S"
t
a2
=
2.S '2 -S"2
= 2*22.30 – 22.03 = 22.57
b
t
=
a
1
-
a
(S
'
t
-S"
t
)
b2
=
a
1
-
a
(S '2
-S"2 )
=
0.1
1
-
0.1
(22.30 - 22.03) = 0.03
-
Peramalan periode ke-3
S
'
t
=
a.X
t
+
(1 -
a
).S '
(t -1)
S 3
'3
=
a.X
3
+
(1 -
a
).S '2
=
0.1 * 36 + (1 - 0.1) * 22 = 23.67
S"
t
=
a.S
'
t
+(1 -
a .S"
).S"
(t -1)
S"3
=
a.S '3 +(1 -
a .S"2
).S"2
=
0.1 * 23.67 + (1 - 0.1) * 22.03 = 22.19
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