108
-
Peramalan periode ke-3
S
'
t
=
a.X
t
+
(1 -
a
).S '
(t -1)
S 3
'3
=
a.X
3
+
(1 -
a .S '2
).S '2
=
0.2 * 35 + (1 - 0.2) * 34 = 34.20
S"
t
=
a.S
'
t
+(1 -
a .S"
).S"
(t -1)
S"3
=
a.S '3 +(1 -
a .S"2
).S"2
=
0.2 * 34.20 + (1 - 0.2) * 33.20 = 33.40
a
t
=
2.S '
t
-S"
t
a3
=
2.S 3 -S"3
'3 -S"3
=
2 * 34.20 – 33.40 = 35
b
t
=
a
1
-
a
(S
'
t
-S"
t
)
b3
=
a
1
-
a
(S '3
-S"3
)
=
0.2
1
-
0.2
(34.20 – 33.40) = 0.20
F
(t +m
)
=
a
t
+
b
t
.m
Pada periode ke-3, m = 1.
F3
=
a2 + b2
.m
=
34.80 + 0.20 * 1 = 35
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