M
o
nt h
I
nde x e
s
1
2
/
s
u
m
I
nd e x e s
Ja n
u
a
r
i
1 0 1
. 0 1
1. 01
1 0 2
. 0 2
F
e
br u a r i
1. 00
1. 01
M
a e
r e
t
0 9 9
. 9 9
0 9 9
. 9 9
Ap r i l
0 9 9
. 9 9
0 9 9
. 9 9
M
e
i
0 9 4
. 9 4
0 9 5
. 9 5
J
u
n
i
1. 05
1. 05
J
u i
l i
0. 86
0. 87
Ag u s t u
s
0 9 5
. 9 5
0 9 6
. 9 6
S
e
pt e m be
r
1 0 1
. 0 1
1 0 1
. 0 1
O
k obe r
t obe r
0 9 5
. 9 5
0 9 6
. 9 6
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
0. 99
1. 00
D
e
s
e
m
b
e
r
1. 18
1. 18
S
u
m
11. 93
12. 00
Tabel 5.7 Uji Coba Peramalan Dekomposisi Yang-yang Chocolate
P
eri o d e
(
x
)
x
²
T
a
hun
B
u a n
l a n
D
e
m
a
n
d
S
e
as on al
Tr e n d
F
i e d V a l u e s ( T S)
t e d V a l u e s ( T S)
Er r o r
1
2
M
o
nt h
M
o
v ng T o t a l
i ng T o t a l
2
Y
e
a
r
M
o
v ng
i ng
T
o a l
t a l
C
e
n e r e d
t e r e d
S
e
a
s
o
na l
I
n
de x
A
j
u t e
s t e
d
Se
a
s
o
n
a
l
I
nde x
x
y
T
r
e
nd
(
T
)
1
1
2002
A
g
u
s u
t u
s
3
980
1. 01
3980. 00
4111. 87
4172. 0 8
-
192. 0 8
2
4
S
e
pt e m be
r
3
933
0. 96
7866. 00
4103. 03
3940. 0 0
-
7. 00
3
9
O
k obe r
t obe r
4
506
1. 00
13518. 00
4094. 19
4093. 3 0
4
1
2 7 0
. 7 0
4
1
6
N
ov e m be r
4
784
1. 18
19136. 00
4085. 36
4832. 6 3
-
48. 6 3
5
2
5
D
es em b e r
3
962
1. 02
19810. 00
4076. 52
4153. 5 0
-
191. 5 0
6
3
6
2003
J
a
n
u
a
r
i
4
056
1. 01
24336. 00
4067. 68
4099. 4 4
-
43. 4 4
7
4
9
F
eb r u ar i
3
968
4897 4. 00
97 889. 00
4078. 71
0. 97
0. 99
27776. 00
4058. 85
4037. 1 9
-
69. 1 9
8
6
4
M
ar et
3
850
4891 5. 00
97 830. 00
4076. 25
0. 94
0. 99
30800. 00
4050. 01
4028. 4 3
-
178. 4 3
9
8
1
A
p l
r l
i l
3
945
4891 5. 00
97 586. 00
4066. 08
0. 97
0. 95
35505. 00
4041. 17
3827. 0 4
1
1
7 9 6
. 9 6
10
100
M
e
i
4
621
4867 1. 00
97 305. 00
4054. 38
1. 14
1. 05
46210. 00
4032. 34
4252. 7 7
3
6
8 2 3
. 2 3
11
121
J
u
n
i
3
550
4863 4. 00
97 262. 00
4052. 58
0. 88
0. 87
39050. 00
4023. 50
3497. 2 4
5
2. 76
12
144
J
u i
l i
3
819
4862 8. 00
97 104. 00
4046. 00
0. 94
0. 96
45828. 00
4014. 66
3835. 9 5
-
16. 9 5
13
169
A
g
u
s u
t u
s
3
921
4847 6. 00
96 862. 00
4035. 92
0. 97
1. 01
50973. 00
4005. 82
4064. 4 8
-
143. 4 8
14
196
S
e
pt e m be
r
3
933
4838 6. 00
96 890. 00
4037. 08
0. 97
0. 96
55062. 00
3996. 99
3838. 1 7
9
4. 83
15
225
O
k obe r
t obe r
4
262
4850 4. 00
96 522. 00
4021. 75
1. 06
1. 00
63930. 00
3988. 15
3987. 2 8
2
7
4 7 2
. 7 2
16
256
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
4
747
4801 8. 00
94 998. 00
3958. 25
1. 20
1. 18
75952. 00
3979. 31
4707. 1 9
3
9. 81
17
289
D
e
s
e
m
b
e
r
3
956
4698 0. 00
93 587. 00
3899. 46
1. 01
1. 02
67252. 00
3970. 48
4045. 4 5
-
89. 4 5
18
324
2004
J
a
n
u
a
r
i
3
904
4660 7. 00
92 957. 00
3873. 21
1. 01
1. 01
70272. 00
3961. 64
3992. 5 7
-
88. 5 7
19
361
F
e
br u a r i
3
878
4635 0. 00
92 683. 00
3861. 79
1. 00
0. 99
73682. 00
3952. 80
3931. 7 2
-
53. 7 2
20
400
M
a e
r e
t
3
968
4633 3. 00
92 228. 00
3842. 83
1. 03
0. 99
79360. 00
3943. 97
3922. 9 5
4
5. 05
21
441
A
p l
r l
i l
3
459
4589 5. 00
91 015. 00
3792. 29
0. 91
0. 95
72639. 00
3935. 13
3726. 6 1
-
267. 6 1
22
484
M
e
i
3
583
4512 0. 00
89 897. 00
3745. 71
0. 96
1. 05
78826. 00
3926. 29
4140. 9 3
-
557. 9 3
23
529
J
u
n
i
3
177
4477 7. 00
89 525. 00
3730. 21
0. 85
0. 87
73071. 00
3917. 46
3405. 0 7
-
228. 0 7
24
576
J
u i
l i
3
562
4474 8. 00
89 490. 00
3728. 75
0. 96
0. 96
85488. 00
3908. 62
3734. 6 2
-
172. 6 2
25
625
A
g
u
s u
t u
s
3
904
4474 2. 00
89 641. 00
3735. 04
1. 05
1. 01
97600. 00
3899. 78
3956. 8 9
-
52. 8 9
26
676
S
e
pt e m be
r
3
495
4489 9. 00
89 763. 00
3740. 13
0. 93
0. 96
90870. 00
3890. 95
3736. 3 4
-
241. 3 4
27
729
O
k obe r
t obe r
3
487
4486 4. 00
90 231. 00
3759. 63
0. 93
1. 00
94149. 00
3882. 11
3881. 2 6
-
394. 2 6
28
784
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
4
404
4536 7. 00
91 753. 00
3823. 04
1. 15
1. 18
123312. 00
3873. 27
4581. 7 5
-
177. 7 5
29
841
D
e
s
e
m
b
e
r
3
927
4638 6. 00
93 251. 00
3885. 46
1. 01
1. 02
113883. 00
3864. 44
3937. 4 1
-
10. 4 1
30
900
2005
J
a
n
u
a
r
i
3
898
4686 5. 00
94 001. 00
3916. 71
1. 00
1. 01
116940. 00
3855. 60
3885. 7 0
1
2. 30
31
961
F
e
br u a r i
4
035
4713 6. 00
0. 99
125085. 00
3846. 76
3826. 2 4
2
0
8 7 6
. 7 6
32
1024
M
a e
r e
t
3
933
0. 99
125856. 00
3837. 93
3817. 4 8
1
1
5 5 2
. 5 2
33
1089
A
p l
r l
i l
3
962
0. 95
130746. 00
3829. 09
3626. 1 9
3
3
5 8 1
. 8 1
34
1156
M
e
i
4
602
1. 05
156468. 00
3820. 25
4029. 1 0
5
7
2 9 0
. 9 0
35
1225
J
u
n
i
3
656
0. 87
127960. 00
3811. 41
3312. 9 0
3
4
3 1 0
. 1 0
36
1296
J
u i
l i
3
833
0. 96
137988. 00
3802. 58
3633. 3 0
1
9
9 7 0
. 7 0
37
1369
A
g
u
s u
t u
s
1. 01
3793. 74
3849. 2 9
38
1444
S
e
pt e m be
r
0. 96
3784. 90
3634. 5 1
39
1521
O
k obe r
t obe r
1. 00
3776. 07
3775. 2 4
M
A
E
178. 3187
M
S
E
53704. 4429
M
A
P
E
a =
4120. 70
b =
-8 8 4
. 8 4
X
395 7. 22
 |