39
?
?
t
?
?
t
?
?
2.2.7
Statistik Ketepatan Peramalan
1. Ukuran Statistik Standar
•
Nilai Tengah Galat Absolut ( Mean Absolute Error )
MAE
1
n
=
e
n
t
+1
•
Nilai Tengah Galat Kuadrat ( Mean Squared Error )
MSE
1
n 1
2
=
e
n
t
+1
•
Deviasi Standar Galat ( Standard Deviation of Error )
SDE
1
n
2
=
n
-
1
?
t
=1
e
t
•
Nilai Tengah Deviasi Absolut ( Mean Absolute Deviation )
MAD =
1
|
X
n
t
-X |
2. Ukuran Relatif
•
Galat Persentase ( Percentage Error )
?
X
-
PE =
?
t
F
?
?
*100
?
X
t
?
•
Nilai Tengah Galat Persentase ( Mean Percentage Error )
1
n
MPE =
PE
n
t
=1
•
Nilai
Tengah
Galat
Persentase
Absolut
(
Mean
Absolute
Percentage Error )
1
n
MAPE =
n
?
t
=1
PE
t
 |