37
decision
rule
that
is
dependent
on
the current
state.
Associated
delays
or
attenuation,
if
any,
are represented appropriately.
Software packages available
today are capable of automatically creating
the
underlying
mathematical
representation from the graphical stock and flow structure.
Simulating the system equations over time with assumed initial values for
system
variables
generates
the
dynamic behavior of the system. At this point
elaborate
tests
are
performed
to
validate
the
model for
adequacy
of
problem
boundary coverage and reproduction of reference mode behavior. A validated
model is used for performing different kinds of analysis like sensitivity analysis
and what-if analysis to support decision-making about a future course of action.
One
important
analysis
involves
experimental
identification
of
feedback
loops
that
dominate
the
dynamics
at
different
points
of
time.
Termed
as
loop
dominance analysis, this provides further insight into the structure of the system
and leads to design of policy structures that result in favorable dynamics.
3. Simulasi
Menurut Muhammadi et al. (2001, pp51-52), simulasi adalah peniruan
prilaku suatu gejala atau proses. Simulasi bertujuan untuk memahami
gejala atau
proses tersebut, membuat analisis dan peramalan prilaku gejala atau proses
tersebut
di
masa
depan.
Simulai
dilakukan melalui tahap-tahap seperti berikut:
penyusunan konsep, pembuatan model, simulasi dan validasi hasil simulasi.
Software Powersim Studio 7
Express,
yang berbasis pada konsep System
Dynamics, digunakan untuk membuat sebuah model yang nyata. Model ini akan
sangat
membantu
pengguna
permainan
ini
untuk
memahami
keterkaitan
antar
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