112
MAPE =
15.19
Tabel 5.15 Tabel Peramalan Data Penjualan Dust Collector 20m³
dengan Metode Double Exponensial Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
a
=
0.5
?
=
0.1
x
=
53.94
t
X
t
S
t
b
t
m
F
t
e
t
|e
t|
PE
t
|PE
t
|
1
33
33.00
5.00
2
38
38.00
5.00
3
35
39.00
4.60
1
43.00
-8.00
8.00
-22.86
22.86
4
46
44.80
4.72
1
43.60
2.40
2.40
5.22
5.22
5
34
41.76
3.94
1
49.52
-15.52
15.52
-45.65
45.65
6
39
42.35
3.61
1
45.70
-6.70
6.70
-17.19
17.19
7
55
50.48
4.06
1
45.96
9.04
9.04
16.43
16.43
8
45
49.77
3.58
1
54.54
-9.54
9.54
-21.20
21.20
9
37
45.18
2.77
1
53.35
-16.35
16.35
-44.20
44.20
10
48
47.97
2.77
1
47.94
0.06
0.06
0.12
0.12
11
46
48.37
2.53
1
50.74
-4.74
4.74
-10.31
10.31
12
52
51.45
2.59
1
50.90
1.10
1.10
2.11
2.11
13
55
54.52
2.63
1
54.04
0.96
0.96
1.75
1.75
14
58
57.58
2.68
1
57.15
0.85
0.85
1.46
1.46
15
63
61.63
2.81
1
60.25
2.75
2.75
4.36
4.36
16
56
60.22
2.39
1
64.44
-8.44
8.44
-15.07
15.07
17
44
53.31
1.46
1
62.61
-18.61
18.61
-42.30
42.30
18
47
50.88
1.07
1
54.77
-7.77
7.77
-16.53
16.53
19
56
53.98
1.28
1
51.96
4.04
4.04
7.22
7.22
20
50
52.63
1.01
1
55.25
-5.25
5.25
-10.51
10.51
21
72
62.82
1.93
1
53.64
18.36
18.36
25.50
25.50
22
61
62.88
1.74
1
64.75
-3.75
3.75
-6.15
6.15
23
52
58.31
1.11
1
64.62
-12.62
12.62
-24.27
24.27
24
56
57.71
0.94
1
59.42
-3.42
3.42
-6.11
6.11
25
68
63.33
1.41
1
58.65
9.35
9.35
13.75
13.75
26
64
64.37
1.37
1
64.73
-0.73
0.73
-1.15
1.15
27
74
69.87
1.78
1
65.74
8.26
8.26
11.16
11.16
28
61
66.33
1.25
1
71.65
-10.65
10.65
-17.47
17.47
29
55
61.29
0.62
1
67.58
-12.58
12.58
-22.87
22.87
30
57
59.46
0.38
1
61.91
-4.91
4.91
-8.62
8.62
31
77
68.42
1.24
1
59.83
17.17
17.17
22.29
22.29
32
80
74.83
1.75
1
69.65
10.35
10.35
12.93
12.93
33
66
71.29
1.22
1
76.58
-10.58
10.58
-16.03
16.03
34
1
72.51
35
2
73.74
36
3
74.96
TOTAL
244.86
-224.17
471.03
 |