116
= 47.12 + 0.71 * 3 = 49.26
1
n
MAPE =
?
PE
t
n
t ¹
=¹
MAPE=
1
×
451.13 = 14.55
31
Dust Collector 20m³ :
a
=
0.5
?
=
0.1
Inisialisasi awal :
S1
=
X
1
?
S1 =
X
1
= 33
b1 =
X
2
-
X
1
?
38-33 = 5
S
t
=
a
*
X
t
+
(1 -
a
)(S
(t -1)
+
b
(t -1)
)
S
2
=
a
*
X
2
+
(1 -
a (S1
)(S1
+
b1
)
= 0.5 * 38 + (1 – 0.5).(33 + 5) = 38
b
t
=
?
(S
t
-
S
(t -1)
)
+
(1 -
?
)b
(t -1)
b2
=
?
(S
2
-
S1 ) + (1 -
?
)b1
= 0.1 * (38 - 33) + (1 – 0.1).(5) = 5
-
Peramalan periode ke-3
S
t
=
a
*
X
t
+
(1 -
a
)(S
(t -1)
+
b
(t -1)
)
S3
=
a
*
X
3
+
(1 -
a (S
)(S
2
+
b2 )
= 0.5 * 35 + (1 – 0.5).(38 + 5) = 39
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