"Regression
offers
the
accountant
a
more
sophisticated
way to
develop expected
amounts
than
simple
trend
analysis
provides.
When employing regression,
it
is
possible
to
statistically
incorporate
past
balances
as
well
as
other
relevant
data
into the
prediction.
Simple
regression
or
multivariate
regression
may be
used.
Both
approaches
are
better suited to revenue and expense accounts than to assets and
liabilities.
“When
using
simple
regression,
an
equation of
a
line
is
developed. The
equation
is
in
the
form
of
y
=
a
+
bx. y
is
the
dependent
variable
being
predicted,
x is
the
independent
variable and
is
conceptually
related to
y,
a
is
the
intercept
and
b
is
the
coefficient of the
independent
variable.
The
values
for
a
and
b
are
established
by
using
numerous past observations of x and
y.
(Colbert, Janet L. 1994)
2.7
Analisa Kebangkrutan sebuah Perusahaan
“Another
model
that
could
be
used
for
credit
scoring
has
been
provided
by
Edward
Altman,
a
professor
at
New
York
University,
who
used
multiple
discriminant
analysis
to
identify businessman that
might
go bankrupt.
In
his
landmark
study,
Altman
used
financial
ratios
to
predict
which
firms
would
go
bankrupt
over
a
20
year
period.
Using multiple dicriminant analysis,
Altman came up with the following index :
EBIT
sales
market value of equity
Z
=
3.3 -------------
+
1.0 -------------- + 0.6
---------------------------
total assets
total assets
book value of debt
retained
earnings
working capital
+
1.4 -----------------------
+
1.2 --------------------
total assets
total
assets
Altman found that the of the firms that went bankrupt over this time period, 94
percent had
Z
scores
of less
than
2.7
one year
prior
to
bankrupcy and only 6
percent
had
scores
above
2.7.
Conversely,
of
those
firms
that
did
not
go
bankrupt,
only
3
percent
had
Z
scores
below
2.7
and
97
percent
had
scores
above
2.7.
Again,
the
advantages
of credit
scoring
techniques
are
low cost
and
ease
of implementation.
Simple calculation
can
easily
spot
those credit
risk
that
need
more
screening
before
credit should be extended to them."
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