123
Contoh perhitungan peramalan dekomposisi :
Perhitungan Index :
Index = Jumlah Total Seasonal Index bulan X / Jumlah bulan X
Multiplier = 12 / Total Index
Adjusted Index = Index * 12/sum
•
Periode ke – 7
Seasonal :
12 Month Moving Total = Demand1 + Demand2 + ….. + Demand
12
=
5128
+
5198
+
6175
+
6813
+
4867
+
5228
+
5159 + 5275 + 5213 + 6267 + 4605 + 5005
=
64.933 , 00
2
Year
Moving
Total
=
12
Month
Moving
total
x
+
12
Month
Moving
Total
x+1
=
64.933 + 65.026 = 129.959,00
Centered
=
2YearMovingTotalx
=
129.959,00
=
5414,96
Seasonalindex =
24
Demandx
Centeredx
24
=
5159
=
0,95
5414,96
Adjusted Index = 0,97 (diperoleh dari perhitungan index)
Trend :
xy = Periode * Demand = 7 * 5159 = 36.113,00
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