P
eri o d e ( x )
x
²
T
a
hun
B
u a n
l a n
D
e
m
a
n
d
S
e
as onal
T
ren d
Fi t t e d V a l
u
e
s
(T S )
E
rro r
¦ e ¦
12 M o n t h M ovi n g T o t
a
l
2 Y e ar M ovi ng T o t
a
l
C
e
n
t r e d
e r e d
S
e
a
s
o
n
a
l
I
n
d
e
x
A
d
j
us t e d Se a s
o
n
a
l
I
n
de x
x y
T
r
e
nd ( T )
1
1
2002
A
g
u
s s
t s
u s
5128
1. 01
5128. 00
5502. 89
5557. 27
-
429. 27
429. 27
2
4
S
e
pt e m be r
5198
0. 91
10396. 00
5487. 79
5010. 17
187. 83
187. 83
3
9
O
k obe r
t obe r
6175
1. 12
18525. 00
5472. 68
6114. 75
60. 25
60. 25
4
1
6
N
ov e m be r
6813
1. 30
27252. 00
5457. 58
7075. 99
-
262. 99
262. 99
5
2
5
D
e
s m be r
e m be r
4867
0. 96
24335. 00
5442. 47
5249. 86
-
382. 86
382. 86
6
3
6
2003
J
a
n
u
a
r
i
5228
1. 02
31368. 00
5427. 37
5526. 06
-
298. 06
298. 06
7
4
9
F
e
b
r
u
a
r
i
5159
64933. 00
129959.
00
5414. 96
0. 95
0. 97
36113. 00
5412. 26
5263. 66
-
104. 66
104. 66
8
6
4
M
a
r
e
t
5275
65026. 00
129852.
00
5410. 50
0. 97
1. 01
42200. 00
5397. 16
5450. 17
-
175. 17
175. 17
9
8
1
A
pr i
l
5213
64826. 00
129767.
00
5406. 96
0. 96
0. 93
46917. 00
5382. 05
5012. 56
200. 44
200. 44
10
100
M
e
i
6267
64941. 00
129828.
00
5409. 50
1. 16
1. 03
62670. 00
5366. 95
5516. 03
750. 97
750. 97
11
121
J
u
n
i
4605
64887. 00
130105.
00
5421. 04
0. 85
0. 82
50655. 00
5351. 84
4384. 21
220. 79
220. 79
12
144
J
u
l
i
5005
65218. 00
130436.
00
5434. 83
0. 92
0. 92
60060. 00
5336. 74
4908. 75
96. 25
96. 25
13
169
A
g
u
s s
t s
u s
5221
65218. 00
130313.
00
5429. 71
0. 96
1. 01
67873. 00
5321. 63
5374. 22
-
153. 22
153. 22
14
196
S
e
pt e m be r
4998
65095. 00
130190.
00
5424. 58
0. 92
0. 91
69972. 00
5306. 53
4844. 68
153. 32
153. 32
15
225
O
k obe r
t obe r
6290
65095. 00
129452.
00
5393. 83
1. 17
1. 12
94350. 00
5291. 42
5912. 23
377. 77
377. 77
16
256
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
6759
64357. 00
126866.
00
5286. 08
1. 28
1. 30
108144. 0 0
5276. 32
6840. 98
-
81. 98
81. 98
17
289
D
e
s m b e r
e m b e r
5198
62509. 00
124280.
00
5178. 33
1. 00
0. 96
88366. 00
5261. 21
5075. 01
122. 99
122. 99
18
324
2004
J
a
n
u
a
r
i
5228
61771. 00
123023.
00
5125. 96
1. 02
1. 02
94104. 00
5246. 11
5341. 50
-
113. 50
113. 50
19
361
F
e
br u a r
i
5036
61252. 00
122458.
00
5102. 42
0. 99
0. 97
95684. 00
5231. 00
5087. 38
-
51. 38
51. 38
20
400
M
a
r
e
t
5275
61206. 00
121835.
00
5076. 46
1. 04
1. 01
105500. 0 0
5215. 90
5267. 13
7. 87
7. 87
21
441
A
p
r
i
l
4475
60629. 00
120212.
00
5008. 83
0. 89
0. 93
93975. 00
5200. 79
4843. 74
-
368. 74
368. 74
22
484
M
e
i
4419
59583. 00
118982.
00
4957. 58
0. 89
1. 03
97218. 00
5185. 69
5329. 74
-
910. 74
910. 74
23
529
J
u
n
i
3867
59399. 00
118317.
00
4929. 88
0. 78
0. 82
88941. 00
5170. 58
4235. 73
-
368. 73
368. 73
24
576
J
u
l
i
4486
58918. 00
117844.
00
4910. 17
0. 91
0. 92
107664. 0 0
5155. 48
4742. 03
-
256. 03
256. 03
25
625
A
g
u
s s
t s
u s
5175
58926. 00
117991.
00
4916. 29
1. 05
1. 01
129375. 0 0
5140. 37
5191. 17
-
16. 17
16. 17
26
676
S
e
pt e m be r
4421
59065. 00
117955.
00
4914. 79
0. 90
0. 91
114946. 0 0
5125. 27
4679. 20
-
258. 20
258. 20
27
729
O
k obe r
t obe r
5244
58890. 00
118472.
00
4936. 33
1. 06
1. 12
141588. 0 0
5110. 16
5709. 70
-
465. 70
465. 70
28
784
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
6575
59582. 00
120708.
00
5029. 50
1. 31
1. 30
184100. 0 0
5095. 06
6605. 97
-
30. 97
30. 97
29
841
D
e
s m b e r
e m b e r
4717
61126. 00
123040.
00
5126. 67
0. 92
0. 96
136793. 0 0
5079. 95
4900. 17
-
183. 17
183. 17
30
900
2005
J
a
n
u
a
r
i
5236
61914. 00
124317.
00
5179. 88
1. 01
1. 02
157080. 0 0
5064. 85
5156. 94
79. 06
79. 06
31
961
F
e
br u a r
i
5175
62403. 00
0. 97
160425. 0 0
5049. 74
4911. 09
263. 91
263. 91
32
1024
M
a
r
e
t
5100
1. 01
163200. 0 0
5034. 64
5084. 09
15. 91
15. 91
33
1089
A
p
r
i
l
5167
0. 93
170511. 0 0
5019. 53
4674. 93
492. 07
492. 07
34
1156
M
e
i
5963
1. 03
202742. 0 0
5004. 43
5143. 44
819. 56
819. 56
35
1225
J
u
n
i
4655
0. 82
162925. 0 0
4989. 32
4087. 24
567. 76
567. 76
36
1296
J
u
l
i
4975
0. 92
179100. 0 0
4974. 22
4575. 30
399. 70
399. 70
37
1369
A
g
u
s s
t s
u s
1. 01
4959. 11
5008. 12
38
1444
S
e
pt e m be r
0. 91
4944. 01
4513. 72
39
1521
O
k obe r
t obe r
1. 12
4928. 90
5507. 18
M
o
nt h
I
nde x e s
1
2 /
s
u
m
I
n
d
e
x
e
s
Ja n u a r
i
0 9 6
. 9 6
1. 00
0 9 6
. 9 6
F
e
br u a r
i
1. 02
1. 02
M
a
r
e
t
0 9 7
. 9 7
0 9 7
. 9 7
A
p
r
i
l
1 0 1
. 0 1
1 0 1
. 0 1
M
e
i
0 9 3
. 9 3
0 9 3
. 9 3
J
u
n
i
1. 02
1. 03
J
u
l
i
0. 82
0. 82
A
g
u
s s
t s
u s
0 9 2
. 9 2
0 9 2
. 9 2
S
e
pt e m be r
1 0 1
. 0 1
1 0 1
. 0 1
O
k obe r
t obe r
0 9 1
. 9 1
0 9 1
. 9 1
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
1. 11
1. 12
D
e
s m b e r
e m b e r
1. 29
1. 30
S
u
m
11. 97
12. 00
Tabel 5.6 Uji Coba Peramalan Dekomposisi Sluppy
t
M
A
E
270. 2210
M
S
E
122666.
0263
M
A
P
E
5. 3086
a
=
5518. 00
b
=
-
15. 11
X
52 38. 56
 |