M
o
nt h
I
n
d
e
x
e
s
1
2
/
s
u
m
I
nde x e s
J
a
n
u
a i
r i
1. 0 4
1. 0 0
1. 0 4
Fe br u a i
r i
1 05
. 05
1 06
. 06
M
a e t
r e t
1 0 0
. 0 0
1 0 0
. 0 0
Ap r
i
1 0 5
. 0 5
1 0 5
. 0 5
M
e
i
1 0 0
. 0 0
1 0 0
. 0 0
J
u
ni
0. 9 2
0. 9 3
J
u i
l i
0. 8 4
0. 8 4
Ag u s t u s
0 9 2
. 9 2
0 9 2
. 9 2
S
e
pt e
m
be r
1 0 4
. 0 4
1 0 5
. 0 5
Ok t o b e r
0 9 7
. 9 7
0 9 7
. 9 7
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
0. 9 9
1. 0 0
D
e e m b e r
s e m b e r
1. 1 4
1. 1 4
S
u
m
1
1. 9 4
12 0 0
. 0 0
Tabel 5.8 Uji Coba Peramalan Dekomposisi Yang-yang Double Cream
P
eri o d e
(
x
)
x
²
T
a
hu n
B
ul a n
D
e
m
a
nd
S
e
as onal
Tr e n d
F
i ed
t ed
V
a u es ( T S )
l u es ( T S )
Er r o r
12
M
o
n
t
h M o v n g T o t a l
i n g T o t a l
2
Y
e
a
r
M
ovi ng
T
o a
t a
l
C
e
n
t
e
r
e
d
S
e
as onal
I
n
d
e
x
A
j
u
s e
t e
d Se
a on a l
s on a l
I
n
de
x
x
y
T
r
e
n
d ( T )
1
1
2002
A
g
u
s u s
t u s
10 29
1. 05
10 29. 00
105 8. 68
1
109. 81
-
8
0. 81
2
4
S
e
pt e
m
be r
10 40
0. 97
20 80. 00
105 5. 16
1
025. 80
14. 2 0
3
9
O
k o b e r
t o b e r
11 27
1. 00
33 81. 00
105 1. 63
1
048. 63
78. 3 7
4
1
6
N
ov e m be r
11 92
1. 14
47 68. 00
104 8. 11
1
195. 94
-
3 9 4
. 9 4
5
2
5
D
e e m b e r
s e m b e r
99 5
1. 04
49 75. 00
104 4. 58
1
087. 77
-
9
2. 77
6
3
6
2003
J
anua r i
10 45
1. 06
62 70. 00
104 1. 06
1
102. 46
-
5
7. 46
7
4
9
F
e
b u a i
r u a i
r i
10 05
123 88. 00
247 62. 0 0
1
031. 75
0. 97
1. 00
70 35. 00
103 7. 53
1
042. 19
-
3
7. 19
8
6
4
M
a e t
r e t
10 34
123 74. 00
247 45. 0 0
1
031. 04
1. 00
1. 05
82 72. 00
103 4. 01
1
086. 30
-
5
2. 30
9
8
1
A
p
r
i
10 73
123 71. 00
247 20. 0 0
1
030. 00
1. 04
1. 00
96 57. 00
103 0. 48
1
031. 99
41. 0 1
10
100
M
e
i
10 24
123 49. 00
246 79. 0 0
1
028. 29
1. 00
0. 93
102 40. 0 0
102 6. 96
9
50. 3 8
73. 6 2
11
121
J
u
n
i
86 7
123 30. 00
246 73. 0 0
1
028. 04
0. 84
0. 84
95 37. 00
102 3. 43
8
59. 1 1
7. 8 9
12
144
J
u i
l i
95 7
123 43. 00
246 81. 0 0
1
028. 38
0. 93
0. 92
114 84. 0 0
101 9. 91
9
37. 9 2
19. 0 8
13
169
A
g
u
s u s
t u s
10 15
123 38. 00
246 78. 0 0
1
028. 25
0. 99
1. 05
131 95. 0 0
101 6. 39
1
065. 47
-
5
0. 47
14
196
S
e
pt e
m
be r
10 37
123 40. 00
247 08. 0 0
1
029. 50
1. 01
0. 97
145 18. 0 0
101 2. 86
9
84. 6 8
52. 3 2
15
225
O
k o b e r
t o b e r
11 05
123 68. 00
245 75. 0 0
1
023. 96
1. 08
1. 00
165 75. 0 0
100 9. 34
1
006. 46
98. 5 4
16
256
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
11 73
122 07. 00
241 88. 0 0
1
007. 83
1. 16
1. 14
187 68. 0 0
100 5. 81
1
147. 68
25. 3 2
17
289
D
e e m b e r
s e m b e r
10 08
119 81. 00
238 72. 0 0
994. 6 7
1. 01
1. 04
171 36. 0 0
100 2. 29
1
043. 72
-
3
5. 72
18
324
2004
J
a
n
u
a i
r i
10 40
118 91. 00
236 70. 0 0
986. 2 5
1. 05
1. 06
187 20. 0 0
998 . 7 6
1
057. 67
-
1
7. 67
19
361
Fe
b u a i
r u a i
r i
10 07
117 79. 00
235 75. 0 0
982. 2 9
1. 03
1. 00
191 33. 0 0
995 . 2 4
9
99. 7 1
7. 2 9
20
400
M
a e t
r e t
10 62
117 96. 00
234 25. 0 0
976. 0 4
1. 09
1. 05
212 40. 0 0
991 . 7 1
1
041. 87
20. 1 3
21
441
A
p
r
i
91 2
116 29. 00
230 05. 0 0
958. 5 4
0. 95
1. 00
191 52. 0 0
988 . 1 9
9
89. 6 3
-
7
7. 63
22
484
M
e
i
79 8
113 76. 00
226 37. 0 0
943. 2 1
0. 85
0. 93
175 56. 0 0
984 . 6 6
9
11. 2 4
-
1
1
3 2 4
. 2 4
23
529
J
u
n
i
77 7
112 61. 00
225 39. 0 0
939. 1 3
0. 83
0. 84
178 71. 0 0
981 . 1 4
8
23. 6 0
-
4
6. 60
24
576
J
u i
l i
84 5
112 78. 00
225 41. 0 0
939. 2 1
0. 90
0. 92
202 80. 0 0
977 . 6 1
8
99. 0 3
-
5
4. 03
25
625
A
g
u
s u s
t u s
10 32
112 63. 00
225 31. 0 0
938. 7 9
1. 10
1. 05
258 00. 0 0
974 . 0 9
1
021. 13
10. 8 7
26
676
S
e
pt e
m
be r
87 0
112 68. 00
225 09. 0 0
937. 8 8
0. 93
0. 97
226 20. 0 0
970 . 5 7
9
43. 5 6
-
7
3. 56
27
729
O
k o b e r
t o b e r
85 2
112 41. 00
225 83. 0 0
940. 9 6
0. 91
1. 00
230 04. 0 0
967 . 0 4
9
64. 2 8
-
1
1
2 2 8
. 2 8
28
784
N
o
v
e
m
b
e
r
10 58
113 42. 00
229 35. 0 0
955. 6 3
1. 11
1. 14
296 24. 0 0
963 . 5 2
1
099. 42
-
4
1. 42
29
841
D
e e m b e r
s e m b e r
10 25
115 93. 00
232 26. 0 0
967. 7 5
1. 06
1. 04
297 25. 0 0
959 . 9 9
9
99. 6 8
25. 3 2
30
900
2005
J
a
n
u
a i
r i
10 25
116 33. 00
233 58. 0 0
973. 2 5
1. 05
1. 06
307 50. 0 0
956 . 4 7
1
012. 88
12. 1 2
31
961
Fe
b u a i
r u a i
r i
10 12
117 25. 00
1. 00
313 72. 0 0
952 . 9 4
9
57. 2 2
54. 7 8
32
1024
M
a e t
r e t
10 35
1. 05
331 20. 0 0
949 . 4 2
9
97. 4 3
37. 5 7
33
1089
A
p
r
i
10 13
1. 00
334 29. 0 0
945 . 8 9
9
47. 2 8
65. 7 2
34
1156
M
e
i
10 49
0. 93
356 66. 0 0
942 . 3 7
8
72. 1 0
176 . 9 0
35
1225
J
u
n
i
81 7
0. 84
285 95. 0 0
938 . 8 4
7
88. 1 0
28. 9 0
36
1296
J
u i
l i
93 7
0. 92
337 32. 0 0
935 . 3 2
8
60. 1 3
76. 8 7
37
1369
A
g
u
s u s
t u s
1. 05
931 . 8 0
9
76. 7 9
38
1444
S
e
pt e
m
be r
0. 97
928 . 2 7
9
02. 4 5
39
1521
O
k o b e r
t o b e r
1. 00
924 . 7 5
9
22. 1 1
M
A
E
52. 0 532
M
S
E
40 40. 9 978
M
A
P
E
a
=
1062 . 2 0
b =
-3 5 2
. 5 2
X
99 7. 00
 |