68
Tabel 4.8. Estimasi Arus Kas ADRO Tahun 2011
ADRO
Estimasion Of Free Cash flow
2011 (forecast)
2012 (forecast)
2013 (forecast)
2014 (forecast)
Sales
Operating income
Less: tax
Net operating profits after tax
Plus: depreciation expense
Less investments:
In net working capital
In new capital (CAPEX)
Total net investment for the period
Free cash flow
32.640.265.496.563
43.151.709.756.035
57.048.250.880.961
75.420.022.682.227
8.231.072.942.333
10.881.800.904.030
14.386.167.118.743
19.019.076.547.498
2.057.768.235.583
2.720.450.226.008
3.596.541.779.686
4.754.769.136.874
6.173.304.706.749
8.161.350.678.023
10.789.625.339.057
14.264.307.410.623
6.938.875.737.213
13.877.751.474.426
27.755.502.948.852
55.511.005.897.704
3.171.272.780.667
4.192.546.859.123
5.542.711.201.982
7.327.681.359.535
345.637.131.755
456.945.829.438
2.633.090.864.460
5.027.875.221.195
3.516.909.912.422
4.649.492.688.562
8.175.802.066.442
12.355.556.580.730
9.595.270.531.539
17.389.609.463.887
30.369.326.221.466
57.419.756.727.598
Sumber: hitungan penulis
WACC=
41,75%
terminal value =
free cash flow
2014
=
57.419.756.727.598
=
k
wacc
41,75%
137.530.003.445.618
firm value =
9.595.270.531.539
+
17.389.609.463.887
+
30.369.326.221.466
+
(1+41,75%)1
(1+41,75%)2
(1+41,75%)3
57.419.756.727.598
+
137.530.003.445.618
(1+41,75%)
4
(1+41,75%)
4
= 9.595.270.531.539
+
17.389.609.463.887
+
30.369.326.221.466
+
57.419.756.727.598
+
137.530.003.445.618
firm value =
74.372.124.332.298
Setelah firm value diketahui. maka proses selanjutnya mencari share value.
debt value =
7.650.414.000.000
number of shares
=
31.985.960.000
firm value =
debt value
+
equity value
74.372.124.332.298
= 7.650.414.000.000
+
equity value
equity value = 66.721.710.332.298
equity value
66.721.710.332.298
Share value
=
number of shares
=
31.985.960.000
= 2.086
Nilai
interinsik ADRO untuk 2011 adalah Rp2.086.
 |