67
Tabel 4.7. Estimasi Arus Kas ADRO Untuk Tahun 2010
ADRO
Estimasion Of Free Cash flow
2010 (actual)
2011 (forecast)
2012 (forecast)
2013 (forecast)
Sales
Operating income
Less: tax
Net operating profits after tax
Plus: depreciation expense
Less investments:
In net working capital
In new capital (CAPEX)
Total net investment for the period
Free cash flow
32.640.265.496.563
41.952.358.991.473
53.921.143.047.527
69.304.557.298.979
8.231.072.942.333
13.024.258.536.842
16.740.009.966.919
21.515.845.443.321
2.057.768.235.583
3.256.064.634.210
4.185.002.491.730
5.378.961.360.830
6.173.304.706.749
9.768.193.902.631
12.555.007.475.189
16.136.884.082.491
4.856.141.000.000
5.819.445.809.399
6.973.839.830.542
8.357.229.120.256
4.406.759.000.000
5.304.648.751.183
6.818.036.720.833
8.763.186.198.946
2.250.548.000.000
2.076.838.785.932
2.669.349.804.279
3.430.901.053.017
6.657.307.000.000
7.381.487.537.115
9.487.386.525.111
12.194.087.251.963
4.372.138.706.749
8.206.152.174.914
10.041.460.780.620
12.300.025.950.783
Sumber: hitungan penulis
WACC=
41,75%
terminal value =
free cash flow
2013
=
12.300.025.950.783
=
29.460.637.031.562
k
wacc
41,75%
firm value =
4.372.138.706.749
+
8.206.152.174.914
+
10.041.460.780.620
+
(1+41.75%)1
(1+41.75%)2
(1+41.75%)3
12.300.025.950.783
+
29.460.637.031.562
(1+41.75%)
4
(1+41.75%)
4
=
4.372.138.706.749
+
8.206.152.174.914
+
10.041.460.780.620 +
12.300.025.950.783
+
29.460.637.031.562
firm value =
21.037.393.305.423
Setelah firm value diketahui. maka proses selanjutnya mencari share value.
debt value =
7.650.414.000.000
number of shares =
31.985.960.000
firm value
=
debt value
+
equity value
74.372.124.332.298
=
7.650.414.000.000
+
equity value
equity value
Share value
=
=
13.386.979.305.423
equity value
number of shares
=
3.386.979.305.42
31.985.960.000
=
419
Nilai
interinsik ADRO untuk 2010 adalah Rp419.
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