66
Tabel 4.6. Estimasi Arus Kas ADRO Untuk Tahun 2009
ADRO
Estimasion Of Free Cash flow
2009 (actual)
2010 (actual)
2011 (forecast)
2012 (forecast)
Sales
Operating income
Less: tax
Net operating profits after tax
Plus: depreciation expense
Less investments:
In net working capital
In new capital (CAPEX)
Total net investment for the period
Free cash flow
26.938.020.000.000
24.689.333.000.000
31.202.818.186.577
39.434.676.618.626
13.024.258.536.842
6.284.233.000.000
8.043.201.617.009
10.165.141.265.400
3.256.064.634.210
1.571.058.250.000
2.010.800.404.252
2.541.285.316.350
9.768.193.902.631
4.713.174.750.000
6.032.401.212.757
7.623.855.949.050
3.618.507.000.000
4.856.141.000.000
5.906.903.077.551
7.185.026.951.972
7.840.833.000.000
4.406.759.000.000
4.046.066.207.390
5.113.490.438.970
1.106.262.000.000
2.250.548.000.000
1.371.816.196.559
1.733.725.709.263
8.947.095.000.000
6.657.307.000.000
5.417.882.403.949
6.847.216.148.232
4.439.605.902.631
2.912.008.750.000
6.521.421.886.358
7.961.666.752.790
Sumber: hitungan penulis
WACC=
16,30%
terminal value =
free cash flow
2012
=
7.961.666.752.790
= 48.847.766.560.184
k
wacc
16,30%
firm value =
4.439.605.902.631
+
2.912.008.750.000
+
6.521.421.886.358
+
(1+16,30%)1
(1+16,30%)2
(1+16,30%)3
7.961.666.752.790
+
48.847.766.560.184
(1+16,30%)
4
(1+16,30%)
4
=
4.439.605.902.631
+
2.912.008.750.000
+
6.521.421.886.358
+
7.961.666.752.790
+
48.847.766.560.184
firm value =
41.170.253.518.208
Setelah firm value diketahui. maka proses selanjutnya
mencari share value.
debt value
= 9.727.427.000.000
number of shares = 31.985.960.000
firm value
=
debt value
+
equity value
41.170.253.518.208 =
9.727.427.000.000
+
equity value
equity value
=
31.442.826.518.208
equity value
31.442.826.518.208
Share value =
number of shares
=
31.985.960.000
= 983
Nilai
interinsik ADRO untuk 2009 adalah Rp983.
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